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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: Interest rate cut expectations coupled with improved risk sentiment, the US dollar is under pressure and falling." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
In Asian trading on Thursday, the U.S. dollar index hovered at 98.53. The main reason for the pressure on the U.S. dollar came from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The positive sentiment in European and U.S. stock markets also led to capital outflows from the U.S. dollar. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is currently testing the key retracement level, and there is no immediate support before the 50-day moving average of 98.025. Market sentiment has clearly turned negative. Unless the dollar can find support at the 50-day moving average and rebound, the possibility of a further pullback to 97.412 remains. Especially in the context of continued consolidation of interest rate cut expectations and high risk appetite, this correction trend is more likely to form.
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.51. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.32% to 98.72, falling for the second consecutive trading day. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that U.S. economic activity has barely changed recently, and employment is basically stable. However, there are signs of weakness such as increased layoffs and low- and middle-income households cutting spending. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued its downward trend and fell below the key Fibonacci support level of 98.714. There are two reasons behind this: First, traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have continued to strengthen, and second, the rebound in global risk sentiment has boosted demand for high-risk currencies. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is currently testing the key retracement level, and there is no immediate support before the 50-day moving average of 98.025. Market sentiment has clearly turned negative. Unless the dollar can find support at the 50-day moving average and rebound, the possibility of a further pullback to 97.412 remains. Especially in the context of continued consolidation of interest rate cut expectations and high risk appetite, this correction trend is more likely to form.
According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September from a revised 4.3% in August. "This isHighest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since November 2021. "The number of unemployed people rose by 34,000 in September. Employment also increased, by 15,000 over the same period. As a result of these increases, the employment participation rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 67.0%, although this is down from the record high of 67.2% set at the beginning of the year." "The employment-to-population ratio remained stable at 64.0%.
U.S. federal officials said they have found no evidence of widespread underreporting of imported home appliances. This statement www.xmlone.orges after Michigan home appliance manufacturer Whirlpool accused the www.xmlone.orgpetition last month Whirlpool's suspicions are based on import data. For example, the average declared value of washing machines from South Korea was $838 in the first five months of this year, but the lower declared value means lower tariffs. Pu said he had www.xmlone.orgrmed the Trump administration of his concerns and had confronted some www.xmlone.orgpetitors, including South Korea's Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics, over the relevant data. Some customs brokers believe that the sudden drop in declared value may be due to data entry errors rather than evasion of tariffs. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) came to the same conclusion after a review.
Barclays Bank predicts that from the third quarter of 2025 to the third quarter of 2026, the quarter-on-quarter growth of the U.S. economy will maintain an average of about 2%. The forecast reflects that the economic expansion remains solid, but as fiscal stimulus As the stimulus gradually subsides and trade resistance persists, the pace of growth will tend to slow down. The bank said the recently implemented tariffs will have a "chronic depletion" effect on economic activity, with most www.xmlone.orgpanies expected to gradually pass on higher import costs rather than trigger an immediate price spike. This may ease pressure on inflation data in the short term, but will prolong pressure on corporate profit margins. Barclays also warned that the main downside risks to its economic outlook came from a slowdown in consumer spending and a possible rise in unemployment, which could hit confidence and discretionary demand heading into 2026.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said in an interview with Hungarian media on the 15th local time that if the EU had not instigated Ukrainian President Zelenskiy behind the scenes, peace might have been achieved between Russia and Ukraine. But European leaders want the conflict to continue and are trying to bring U.S. President Donald Trump to support its continuation. Orban also reiterated his opposition to Ukraine joining the EU, saying that Ukraine's joining the EU would mean bringing war into the EU and would take away a large amount of EU funds. Orban also pointed out that before the upcoming EU summit next week, he wanted to make it clear with Russia whether the countermeasures Russia would take would include freezing Hungary if the EU used frozen Russian assets.assets of the www.xmlone.orgpany. He will not support the EU's use of Russia's frozen assets if Hungarian www.xmlone.orgpanies are likely to suffer Russian retaliation.
A senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Wednesday that as global trade uncertainty clouds the economic outlook, the Bank of Japan must maintain an easy monetary policy and take a very gradual approach to raising interest rates. Nada Shuairi, deputy director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, pointed out that Japan's economic performance has been better than expected so far this year, thanks to strong consumption and exports, while the trade agreement between Tokyo and Washington has also alleviated some uncertainties. But she also stressed that growth risks are skewed to the downside due to uncertain prospects for other trade negotiations and the possible reversal of loose global financial conditions. She also said there was still uncertainty about whether domestic wages could continue to rise and support consumption, thereby stabilizing inflation near the Bank of Japan's 2% target. When asked about the market consensus that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in January next year, she responded: "It is important to be gradual, very gradual, and to pay attention to all emerging data."
Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny said in a report that the market currently underestimates the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates again before December, which may put pressure on the pound. He pointed out that if the economic data released in the future show that inflation continues to slow down and wage growth does not rebound, then the reasons for easing monetary policy will be further strengthened. In addition, the UK's autumn budget to be announced on November 26 may confirm that fiscal austerity is a drag on the economy. According to LSEG data, the market is currently only pricing in expectations of about 12 basis points of interest rate cuts by December.
Felipe Villarroel, an analyst at TwentyFour Asset Management, said in a report that the UK employment data released this week showed a weak labor market, providing room for the Bank of England to cut interest rates earlier than the market had previously expected. Data show that in the three months to August, the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 4.7% in the previous three months. Analysts pointed out: "Given these labor market data, it should be marginally easier for the Bank of England to start the process of cutting interest rates." LSEG data shows that the market currently expects the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in December to be 47%, higher than the 33% probability before the release of Tuesday's employment data.
Analysts at MonexEurope said in a report that despite the initial progress in French budget negotiations and the easing of political uncertainty, which has brought some optimism, the rebound of the euro is expected to remain relatively mild. Analysts pointed out that the euro zone’s “"Basic fragility" remains the dominant theme, which was further confirmed after Germany's October ZEW economic sentiment index released on Tuesday was weaker than expected, which highlighted the weakening momentum of business confidence. "We expect political risks in France and economic weakness in Germany to continue to be the main driving factors affecting the euro in the short term," the report said. ”
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